Measuring the Impact of Early-2025 AI on Experienced Open-Source Developer Productivity: metr.org/blog/2025-07-10-early

METR ran a controlled experiment with 16 experienced open-source developers on 246 programming tasks. The developers predicted that the use of AI would speed up their work by 25%, and after the experiment judged that it had sped it up by 20%. But when actually measured, the use of AI slowed down their work by 19%.

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