Here's how we get there:

1 in 9 (11.11%) of all people who transition detransition at some point. 4% of those detransition because they're not trans after all. That comes out to 0.44% of everyone who transitions got their gender wrong.

Almost none of those people receive gender-affirming care.

The trans population of the US is 1.6% of the population, according to our best numbers. So, 0.44% of a population that's 1.6% of the total headcount of the US comes out to only 0.007% of the population of the US.

24,429 people. In all of the nation.

This, right here, is why our data on detransitioners is so incredibly poor. To have a statistical samothat you can even BEGIN to submit to basic tools of statistical analysis, you need 100 participants.

In this case, that's a half a percent *of the entire detransitioner population*.

Most of these folks, like I said, never had gender-affirming care. That means there's no clinics with contact info around, who can follow up and actually find these folks.

Most of them are people who tried out new names, pronouns, and clothes with friends and fam, and then moved on with life.

Now, the USTS uses snowball sampling, so we need to be careful about how much we extrapolate here. Even if we assume that the actual detransition rate is four times higher than what the USTS found, that's less than 100,000 eligible potential participants.

Its not a needle in a haystack situation here. It's a needle in a forty-acre wheat field situation. There are, by the numbers, *so few people* who detransition because they're cis after all that it's almost a statistical impossibility to sample enough of them to get real data, in a systematic way.

So, yeah. According to our best, newest data on detransition, one of the main things we've managed to learn is why this is such a huge gap in the literature.

And from those numbers, it's gonna be incredibly hard to change that.

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