Hackers' Pub

Syntax	Description	Examples
`"` keyword `"`	Finds the string within quotes, including spaces. Case-insensitive. (Escape quotes inside with `\"`)	`"Hackers' Pub"`
`from:` handle	Finds content written by the specified user.	`from:hongminhee` `from:hongminhee@hollo.social`
`lang:` ISO 639-1	Finds content written in the specified language.	`lang:en`
`#` tag	Finds content with the specified tag. Case-insensitive.	`#HackersPub`
condition condition	Finds content that satisfies both conditions on either side of the space (logical AND).	`"Hackers' Pub" lang:en`
condition `OR` condition	Finds content that satisfies at least one of the conditions on either side of the OR operator (logical OR).	`#HackersPub OR "Hackers' Pub" lang:en`
`(` condition `)`	Combines the operators within the parentheses first.	`(#HackersPub OR "Hackers' Pub" OR "Hackers Pub") lang:en`

bert hubert 🇺🇦🇪🇺🇺🇦 @bert_hubert@eupolicy.social

1/4/2026, 10:27:17 AM

Public

From a long fermenting blog post draft. Venezuelan oil is not that interesting since it is tricky to process & thus very expensive, while oil demand is declining:

There are various ways of looking at this graph. We can lament that the 2023 pledge (in red) is not ambitious enough, or we could express justified doubt that we’ll even deliver on that. But there is a wholly different way of looking at it. To the government of an oil-state, this graph looks like an outright declaration of war. This graph represents national bankruptcy if not extinction for specific oil producing countries like Russia and Venezuela.

So what would actually happen? If the oil cartels coordinate, they can slowly shutter their production in unity, and they’d all suffer equally and fossil prices would remain more or less as normal, except they’d sell less. We may already be seeing signs of such voluntary shuttering.

But it won’t last. Saudi Arabia can produce oil for a few dollars per barrel. But Russia needs six times more money (~$30) before they make any profits. Both countries need seriously high oil prices to stay alive (>$80, $100 perhaps for Russia).

Meanwhile, the world is electrifying loads of things, and if you manage to heat your house with solar or wind, you’d pay only $15-$30 to get the heat output of one barrel of oil. If you were driving a car and you manage to charge it from solar/wind, you are looking at costs oil would only reach at $7/barrel (this all pre-tax).

You don’t have to be a green dreamer to see that any country that needs $80/oil to survive is looking at an imminent world of pain.

If you have a fediverse account, you can quote this note from your own instance. Search https://eupolicy.social/users/bert_hubert/statuses/115836350463097954 on your instance and quote it. (Note that quoting is not supported in Mastodon.)