Dinosaur fights seem impressive but they're just a bunch of matrix multiplications.

We can model dinsosaur fights from the AD&D Monster Manual (1e, of course) as a Markov chain that you run until they hit one of two clusters of final states: one where one has zero hit points, or the other.

The matrices were pretty fiddly to get right but I got there in the end in Mathematica.

I compared the results to two completely independent methods (Monte Carlo simulations in C++ and an experimental Python DSL, all agreed to as many decimal places as you might expect.) so I think I can now reveal the dinosaur league table...

0

If you have a fediverse account, you can quote this note from your own instance. Search https://mathstodon.xyz/users/dpiponi/statuses/114723242559238080 on your instance and quote it. (Note that quoting is not supported in Mastodon.)