Hackers' Pub

Hackers’ Pub

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Jo Liss @joliss@mastodon.social

7/10/2025, 10:38:25 PM

Public

"When developers are allowed to use AI tools, they take 19% longer to complete issues—a significant slowdown that goes against developer beliefs and expert forecasts. This gap between perception and reality is striking: developers expected AI to speed them up by 24%, and even after experiencing the slowdown, they still believed AI had sped them up by 20%."

https://metr.org/blog/2025-07-10-early-2025-ai-experienced-os-dev-study/

This is a bar chart titled "Against Expert Forecasts and Developer Self-Reports, Early-2025 AI Slows Down Experienced Open-Source Developers." It presents a randomized controlled trial (RCT) in which 16 developers with moderate AI experience completed 246 tasks in large, complex projects. The vertical axis represents the change in time (in percentage) when AI was allowed, with negative values indicating a speedup and positive values indicating a slowdown.

Transcription of the text in the image:

Title:

> Against Expert Forecasts and Developer Self-Reports, Early-2025 AI Slows Down Experienced Open-Source Developers

Subtitle:

> In this RCT, 16 developers with moderate AI experience complete 246 tasks in large and complex projects on which they have an average of 5 years of prior experience.

Y-axis label:

> Change in time when AI allowed

Left of Y-axis:

Green arrow pointing up: Speedup
Red arrow pointing down: Slowdown

X-axis categories (from left to right):

1. Economics expert forecasts
2. ML expert forecasts
3. Developer forecasts during study
4. Developer estimates after study
5. Observed result

Data points:

All forecasts (first four categories) show negative values (speedup), with Economics experts forecasting nearly -40% time change.
The observed result is a positive value (slowdown) of approximately +20%, indicated in red, with error bars showing uncertainty.

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