Hackers' Pub

Syntax	Description	Examples
`"` keyword `"`	Finds the string within quotes, including spaces. Case-insensitive. (Escape quotes inside with `\"`)	`"Hackers' Pub"`
`from:` handle	Finds content written by the specified user.	`from:hongminhee` `from:hongminhee@hollo.social`
`lang:` ISO 639-1	Finds content written in the specified language.	`lang:en`
`#` tag	Finds content with the specified tag. Case-insensitive.	`#HackersPub`
condition condition	Finds content that satisfies both conditions on either side of the space (logical AND).	`"Hackers' Pub" lang:en`
condition `OR` condition	Finds content that satisfies at least one of the conditions on either side of the OR operator (logical OR).	`#HackersPub OR "Hackers' Pub" lang:en`
`(` condition `)`	Combines the operators within the parentheses first.	`(#HackersPub OR "Hackers' Pub" OR "Hackers Pub") lang:en`

Prof. Sam Lawler @sundogplanets@mastodon.social

12/11/2025, 2:27:01 PM

Public

The CRASH Clock uses the current density in altitude bins (averaged over eccentric orbits) of satellites, rocket bodies, and tracked debris, assuming typical cross sections for each type and orbital speeds. This calculation tells us how long to a collision if all orbital maneuvers were to suddenly stop.

The CRASH Clock is currently* at 2.8 days.

In 2018 it was 121 days.

*This is actually for June 2025 because that's when we ran it. Will update soon!

Prof. Sam Lawler @sundogplanets@mastodon.social

12/11/2025, 2:31:41 PM

Public

We set up a CRASH Clock website here: https://outerspaceinstitute.ca/crashclock/

Note that this is a probabilistic calculation. A catastrophic collision could happen sooner than 2.8 days of no maneuvers. In our (extremely computationally expensive) collision simulation, just by random chance we actually got the first collision just 3 hours in.

We are currently well inside the Caution Zone. The probability of collisions happening if no avoidance maneuvers occur is >10% in any 24 hour period.

A plot showing how the 24 hour collision probability rises at lower values of the CRASH Clock. At very short CRASH Clock values (less than about 1.5 days), the probability of a collision happening within 24 hours if no avoidance maneuvers are executed is larger than 50%.

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