Hackers' Pub

Syntax	Description	Examples
`"` keyword `"`	Finds the string within quotes, including spaces. Case-insensitive. (Escape quotes inside with `\"`)	`"Hackers' Pub"`
`from:` handle	Finds content written by the specified user.	`from:hongminhee` `from:hongminhee@hollo.social`
`lang:` ISO 639-1	Finds content written in the specified language.	`lang:en`
`#` tag	Finds content with the specified tag. Case-insensitive.	`#HackersPub`
condition condition	Finds content that satisfies both conditions on either side of the space (logical AND).	`"Hackers' Pub" lang:en`
condition `OR` condition	Finds content that satisfies at least one of the conditions on either side of the OR operator (logical OR).	`#HackersPub OR "Hackers' Pub" lang:en`
`(` condition `)`	Combines the operators within the parentheses first.	`(#HackersPub OR "Hackers' Pub" OR "Hackers Pub") lang:en`

Jeff Atwood @codinghorror@infosec.exchange

2/12/2026, 8:50:28 AM

Public

Soft Secession seems most likely, I guess? It's a weak "choice"

Can nullification work as a long-term "living arrangement"? Yes, but it comes with a heavy price.

Political scientists call this "Uncooperative Federalism." It is essentially a messy, de facto compromise where the country stays married on paper, but sleeps in separate bedrooms and maintains separate bank accounts. It is less a "solution" and more a survival mechanism—a pressure release valve that prevents the superheated steam of polarization from blowing up the entire machine.

Here is a projection of how this "Soft Secession" will likely evolve over the next decade, based on the trends we are seeing in 2026.

1. The Projection: The "Swiss Cheese" Map
We are moving from a nation of uniform federal laws to a "Swiss Cheese" nation, where federal authority has holes punched in it depending on where you stand.

The Nullification Rate is Accelerating. In the early 2000s, nullification was rare (mostly just marijuana). By the 2020s, it expanded to immigration and guns. By the late 2020s, we project it will consume 30-40% of domestic policy.

2. The Escalation Ladder (2026–2032)
The "living arrangement" only works if it stays passive. The danger is that states are currently climbing an escalation ladder from Passive to Aggressive nullification.

Stage 1: Passive Non-Cooperation (The "Marijuana Model")

Mechanism: "We won't use our state resources to help you enforce your law."

Result: Federal law is technically valid, but practically unenforceable because the Feds don't have the manpower to do it alone.

Sustainability: High. The Supreme Court (anti-commandeering doctrine) generally protects this.

Stage 2: Active Interference (The "Missouri/Texas Model")

Mechanism: Passing state laws that make it a crime for local police to cooperate with Feds, or suing Federal agents who operate in the state.

Result: Direct legal conflict. Federal agents face arrest or civil liability for doing their jobs.

Sustainability: Low to Medium. This triggers constitutional crises, but if the Supreme Court is gridlocked or partisan, it might stand.

Stage 3: Fiscal Nullification (The "Tax Strike")

Mechanism: States (particularly wealthy Blue states like CA or NY) threatening to withhold federal tax revenue or demanding "block grants" back.

Result: This is the breaking point. If the money stops flowing, the federal government ceases to function.

Current Status: Still fringe, but growing in popularity as "Donor States" tire of funding states that actively oppose their values.

3. Can it work long term?
It can work as a Cold Peace, but it destroys the economic efficiency of the United States.

The "Balkanized" Economy: A trucking company moving goods from California to Texas might soon need two different fleets of trucks to comply with two contradictory sets of environmental and labor laws. This massive inefficiency will drag down US GDP.

The "Flight to Safety": We are already seeing "political migration." Corporations and families will continue to self-sort. If you are a gun manufacturer, you leave New York. If you are a tech firm with a diverse workforce, you leave Florida.

The End of "Rights": The concept of "American Rights" will vanish. Your rights will depend entirely on your zip code. In one state, you have a right to an abortion but no right to carry a gun. Cross a state line, and the situation flips 180 degrees.

Verdict
Nullification is a metastable state. It is like a building that has settled into a crooked position; it isn't straight, but it isn't falling down... yet.

It buys the Union time. It allows Red and Blue America to live their separate lives without filing for divorce. But it creates a hollowed-out superpower, where the "United" States exists only for foreign war, while at home, we live in 50 separate fiefdoms.

If you have a fediverse account, you can quote this note from your own instance. Search https://infosec.exchange/users/codinghorror/statuses/116056799857446845 on your instance and quote it. (Note that quoting is not supported in Mastodon.)

Jeff Atwood @codinghorror@infosec.exchange

2/13/2026, 1:12:54 AM

Public

@ermoermo | Rune Morling I think it's gonna be nullification and soft succession to the bone, which isn't.. a great.. outcome, but we have ZERO leaders as strong as FDR or Lincoln to get us through this. I see absolutely nobody of that caliber on the landscape today. https://infosec.exchange/@codinghorror/116056799857446845