What is Hackers' Pub?

So now the Oilers have Connor McDavid, Connor Ingram, Connor Ungar, and Connor Murphy.

If we can get one more Connor, that would give us five Connors, which means we can then redeem for a free Connor!

#HNOM #LetsGoOilers

Comprehensive Hegemony or Deterrence Balance: War Scenarios After the Assault on Iran

On 28 February 2026, West Asia crossed a red line that had hovered over the region for years, one that diplomats spoke of in cautious tones and military planners gamed out in closed rooms. The US, in full operational coordination with Israel, launched a wide-scale military assault against the Islamic Republic of Iran, targeting the core of its sovereign leadership, its strategic deterrent capabilities, and the infrastructure underpinning both.

Within hours, Tehran responded with cross-border missile strikes against US bases across the Persian Gulf and deep inside occupied Palestine, transforming what Washington had framed as a decisive preventive blow into the opening phase of a regional war Iran had long warned would follow any direct aggression against its territory.

The confrontation quickly moved beyond rhetoric and symbolic retaliation, altering the strategic temperature of the entire region from the very first hours.

Decapitation doctrine: Shock, assassination, and infrastructure strikes

The assault – named “Operation Roaring Lion” by Israel and referred to in Washington as “Operation Epic Fury” – began in the early hours with more than 200 fighter jets, including F-35 aircraft, launching from multiple regional bases under US naval cover in the Arabian Sea.

The sequencing of targets, the depth of penetration, and the use of heavy bunker-buster munitions reflected a clear operational doctrine: decapitate the leadership, sever command networks, and disable retaliatory capacity before it could be fully mobilized.

The first wave focused explicitly on what Israeli and US planners consider the “head of the pyramid.” Sovereign sites in Tehran were struck in rapid succession.

Bombardment hit the Sayyid Khandan district and University Street, targeting Beit al-Rahbari – the complex of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei – alongside the presidential palace and parliament building. Squadrons of F-35s executed concentrated raids against the security perimeter along Pasteur Street, deploying heavy penetrating munitions designed to collapse hardened underground structures.

By dawn on 1 March, Iranian state television interrupted programming to announce the martyrdom of Ayatollah Khamenei following the destruction of his residence and adjacent command centers. Reports confirmed the killing of senior figures who had been attending an emergency meeting of the Supreme Defense Operations Room, including Defense Minister Brigadier General Aziz Nasirzadeh, senior Revolutionary Guard commanders, the chief of staff, intelligence officials, and the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council.

The assault sought to hollow out what Washington and Tel Aviv viewed as the decision-making core of the Islamic Republic in a single, overwhelming stroke.

Strikes extended well beyond leadership targets. Facilities in Isfahan, Karaj, and Qom linked to uranium enrichment and ballistic missile storage were hit in coordinated waves. Air defense systems were targeted in an attempt to blind and disorient Iran’s layered deterrent shield.

Israeli Army Radio later described roughly 500 objectives as having been struck, including sensitive command installations and missile depots associated with the Revolutionary Guard.

Civilian casualties followed the military onslaught. In the southern city of Minab, an airstrike destroyed the Shajareh Tayyebeh (“Good Tree”) girls’ elementary school, killing over 175 students and injuring dozens. Images from the site circulated rapidly across Iranian media, reshaping the internal political atmosphere. The massacre hardened public resolve, framing the confrontation not as an abstract strategic dispute but as a national trauma with generational consequences.

True Promise 4: Expanding the battlefield

Iran’s response did not unfold over days of deliberation. Less than an hour after the initial assault and only two hours into the bombing campaign, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced the launch of “True Promise 4.” The operation marked a decisive and historic escalation: direct targeting of US military installations across West Asia.

Missiles struck the headquarters of the Fifth Fleet in Juffair, Bahrain, a symbol of Washington’s maritime dominance in the Persian Gulf. Al-Udeid Base in Qatar – one of the largest US air installations in the region – was hit, alongside facilities in the UAE, Kuwait, Jordan, and Harir Base in Iraq’s Kurdistan region.

For the first time, Tehran formally placed the entire network of US forward-deployed infrastructure within its declared battlefield, erasing the long-assumed distinction between Israeli targets and American ones.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi clarified that the response targeted the “sources of aggression,” stressing that Tehran did not consider host states to be the enemy but viewed US bases on their soil as American sovereign extensions. Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council Ali Larijani reinforced this framing, stating that these bases constitute American territory regardless of geography. Essentially, any platform used to attack Iran would be treated as part of the war.

Simultaneously, hundreds of ballistic missiles and drones were launched toward occupied Palestine. Sirens sounded in Jerusalem, Tel Aviv, and Haifa. Despite interception attempts, direct hits were recorded on military installations and strategic facilities, forcing the occupation government to declare a state of maximum emergency and relocate settlers into shelters.

The aura of strategic immunity that had surrounded both US bases and Israeli depth for decades was punctured in a matter of hours.

With the ceasefire already violated by Tel Aviv, Hezbollah, a central pillar of the Axis of Resistance, launched coordinated rocket and drone attacks from south Lebanon toward military targets inside occupied Palestine, signaling that Iran would not stand alone on the battlefield.

The strikes marked the most serious escalation on the Lebanese front since the 2024 war, immediately transforming the crisis into a multi-front confrontation. Tel Aviv responded with heavy airstrikes on south Lebanon and the southern suburbs of Beirut – Dahiye – targeting resistance infrastructure, logistical hubs, and suspected command sites.

The bombing of Beirut reinserted Lebanon directly into the war equation, potentially operationalizing the ‘Unity of Fronts’ doctrine long articulated by the Axis of Resistance. With Hezbollah’s entry, the conflict ceased to be a bilateral US–Iran exchange and instead evolved into a regional confrontation, as the late Khamenei had predicted last month, with overlapping theaters stretching from the Persian Gulf to the eastern Mediterranean.

Washington’s regime-change push and Tel Aviv’s agenda

Politically, Washington and Tel Aviv presented the assault as a strategic necessity rather than an act of escalation. US President Donald Trump declared the objective to be the permanent elimination of what he called the Iranian nuclear threat, openly tying the operation to regime change and urging Iranians to “take control” of their country.

He issued an ultimatum to the IRGC to lay down arms or face destruction, offering immunity to those who complied. The messaging made clear that the assault was not confined to centrifuges and missile depots but aimed at the political core of the Islamic Republic itself.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described the attack as a historic opportunity to reshape West Asia. Israeli security officials framed it as a preemptive strike against Iran’s nuclear ambitions, emphasizing tactical surprise and the breadth of targets struck. For Tel Aviv, the operation aligned with a broader strategic vision in which normalization projects and regional integration initiatives are secured by overwhelming military dominance.

Tehran’s response was equally unequivocal. Iranian officials declared that the era of strategic patience had ended and characterized the assault as political and military suicide for the US–Israeli alliance. Official sources signaled the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to international navigation, a move that immediately rattled global energy markets.

Amid escalating tensions, the IRGC announced it had targeted multiple oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf, as maritime authorities in Bahrain and Oman reported vessel strikes, casualties, and heightened naval alerts – marking a shift from symbolic retaliation to direct maritime confrontation.

Scenario one: Comprehensive war and systemic rupture

The first and most dangerous trajectory is full regional war. In this scenario, Iran escalates from base targeting to enforcing a comprehensive shutdown of oil exports from the Persian Gulf. A temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuz could become a sustained blockade backed by naval mines, anti-ship missile batteries, and asymmetric maritime tactics. Oil prices could surge beyond $200 per barrel, amplifying global economic fragility and placing immense strain on energy-dependent economies.

With Hezbollah already engaged and the Lebanese front active, Israel would confront simultaneous pressure from Iran, Lebanon, Yemen, and Iraq. The activation of the Unity of Fronts doctrine would stretch Israeli military capacity and compel Washington to consider direct intervention across multiple arenas to shield its principal regional ally.

US bases in Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, the UAE, and Iraq would become fixed targets under continuous threat, transforming symbols of projection into liabilities.

Such escalation would test the durability of Washington’s regional architecture. Projects built on the premise of Israeli military supremacy – including normalization tracks and integration corridors – could unravel under sustained fire. Instead of containing Iran, comprehensive war could entrench Tehran and its allies as an unbreakable regional force, accelerating the shift toward a multipolar order in which Russian and Chinese influence expands at the expense of Atlanticist dominance.

Scenario two: Harsh equilibrium under new rules

A second possibility rests on restored deterrence after mutual shock. If Washington calculates that further escalation risks unsustainable military and political losses, and Tehran judges its message sufficiently delivered, an undeclared truce may emerge.

Under such conditions, the US–Israeli camp would frame disruption of Iran’s nuclear trajectory as a strategic achievement while stepping back from explicit regime change. Iran would treat direct strikes on US bases and Israeli depth as proof that western immunity has ended. The confrontation would recede into a new phase of shadow warfare governed by harsher, more permissive rules of engagement.

Yet Hezbollah’s re-entry complicates any swift de-escalation. Multi-front engagement reduces the likelihood of rapid bilateral understanding. Missile exchanges, cyber operations, targeted assassinations, and calibrated strikes could become semi-regular signaling mechanisms. The region would inhabit a persistent gray zone, neither full-scale war nor stable peace, with economic stability perpetually exposed to flare-ups.

Scenario three: Sustained war of attrition

Tehran may instead opt for prolonged attrition designed to erode the logic of US presence without triggering overwhelming retaliation. Rather than granting Washington a pretext for infrastructure devastation, Iran and its allies could raise costs incrementally.

Under this approach, every US base becomes a fortified installation under intermittent fire from drones and missiles. Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab could face periodic disruptions sufficient to unsettle markets without imposing a total shutdown.

Israel would likely intensify assassinations and covert operations, deepening cycles of retaliation. Hezbollah’s sustained engagement from Lebanon would further stretch Israeli military bandwidth and air defense capacity.

Over months, the steady drain on munitions stockpiles, interceptor systems, and defense budgets could erode the strategic rationale of forward deployment. Yet attrition also imposes internal pressure on Iran and Lebanon alike. Sustained confrontation under tightened embargoes demands economic resilience, social cohesion, and political stability. External actors would seek to exploit any internal fractures.

Scenario four: Decisive shock and rapid recalculation

A final trajectory contemplates rapid strategic rupture. One hypothesis envisions the initial assault successfully paralyzing Iranian command structures and forcing sweeping concessions on nuclear and missile programs. Yet the speed and breadth of Iran’s retaliation, conducted despite the loss of senior leadership figures, complicate that assessment.

The alternative centers on an unexpected US setback. A direct hit on a major naval asset, destruction of a central command hub such as the Fifth Fleet headquarters, or disabling strikes on multiple bases could generate domestic backlash in Washington sufficient to compel immediate recalibration. If Israel were subjected to sustained precision fire threatening core infrastructure, US policymakers would confront the risk that continued war jeopardizes their principal regional anchor.

source: The Cradle

Pan-Tilt Head For Camera Motion Control

https://hackaday.com/2026/03/02/pan-tilt-head-for-camera-motion-control/

@lcamtuflcamtuf that website was almost certainly built by an LLM: they've got a very distinctive style.

LLMs creating spammy sites to sell LLMs for creating internet spam. It's spam all the way down.

교수님... 시작하자마자 12초간 힘찬 사인파를 발산하셨어

T-The Mastodon team is excited to infowm you that youw content is captuwing the *boops your nose* audience's attention. We w-wouwd wike to offew you an oppowtunyity fow cowwabowation, whewe you can eawn wewawds fow youw posts.

To begin this cowwabowation, *cries* w-w-we stwongwy wecommend that you compwete the *boops your nose* vewification process by using the *UwU* wink below:

(WINK WEMOVED)

> 我こそは雪の女王である。別にこのグループにおいてありのままの姿で生きたいわけではないので難しい。
すき

暗いネットで待ち合わせ - ずっとぼんやりしている
https://umeboshi666.hatenablog.com/entry/20260302/1772440447

아맞아오늘화요일이지
착각하고월요일시간표대로갔,어

The year of the fire horse is indeed fiery and equine for me

​​

このブログ記事、ネットに対する感覚がわかりすぎて、泣き笑いみたいになってしまった

https://umeboshi666.hatenablog.com/entry/20260302/1772440447

Buck(牡鹿) Room
鹿がめっちゃいる部屋

While I have no ill will toward the “ATmosphere” (Bluesky/AT Protocol), the contrast in funding models is hard to ignore. The fediverse's support from strategic investments in open infrastructure (like NLnet or STF) feels far healthier than ATmosphere's heavy backing from crypto-linked VCs—a sector often fraught with bubbles and social harm. I'm a bit envious of their smooth R&D resources, but I'm ultimately convinced that building on a foundation of digital public goods is the more sustainable path for a truly decentralized web.

misskey.ioに新しい絵文字 ​​ (blobcat_silver)が追加されたかも。
​​

엄청 힘든 한달이 시작되겠구나.

We've got something to Share! We hope you'll find it useful. https://blog.joinmastodon.org/2026/03/a-new-share-button/

🕐 2026-03-03 00:00 UTC

📰 Skillsで実現する軽量パーソナルRAG (👍 78)

🇬🇧 Building a lightweight personal RAG using Skills, replacing PostgreSQL+Docker setup with a simpler approach for vector search.
🇰🇷 PostgreSQL+Docker 대신 Skills를 활용하여 더 가벼운 개인용 RAG 시스템을 구축하는 방법을 소개합니다.

🔗 https://zenn.dev/karaage0703/articles/d7eaf62437185d

#RAG #Skills #Zenn

@catsaladCat 🐈🥗 (D.Burch) ⁠ don't forget the RAM.

這隻貓貓每年都會在月曆前面拍照
再把照片做成年曆
希望能一直連載

감정의 무게를 덜어내는 시간
마음속 짐을 내려놓고
오늘의 나를 토닥여주세요

연휴 끝나고 업무 시작하기 전에 Sneak Peak까지 구현했다. 뿌-듯

​​

苦しい

ソーシャルネットワーキングサービス、どれだけ短時間に効率よく脳内物質を出させるかの競争だよな。

​​

이번에 뜬금 애들 다니는 학교를 폭격한것도 아마 이런 시스템의 오류일 가능성이 있습니다 아마도 팔란티어 기반 시스템일텐데 아마도 해당 학교 밑에 시설이 있었다던가 이러면 그냥 다 같이 날려버리는것 같더군요 미군은 어떤지 모릅니다만 이스라엘은 여태 그래왔으니... 사실 영화 터미네이터의 스카이넷보다 더 무섭고 지독한 놈들임 (..)

深谷ねぎを奥まで​​オフ

RE: https://misskey.io/notes/ajdehmlc2eui0chh

我至今忘不了有一个女同楼主自述和女朋友的故事，底下有个直男破口大骂说女人和女人怎么能在一起呢？你们不怕浴室的下水口被双倍的头发堵死吗？
就这样精细的同人情节出自恐同的直男之口

??? 아닌거 같은데

https://test.bdsmspec.com/sexuality/deep/run

この意味不明な怒りを掻き立てるのがXの一番の目的なんだろうな。気に食わん

埼玉のオフ会ヤクザYouTuber、さいたマチ

RE: https://misskey.io/notes/ajdedplt2eui0c8k

► https://FunHouseRadio.com <- TUNE IN
We can help with your #bullshit #Monday #crap with #mindnumbing #ludicrous #music. And I'm still doing laundry.

@ddlunch 안녕하세요. 어르신

最近在讀 Oliver Burkeman 的《人生４千個禮拜》（Four Thousand Weeks: Time Management for Mortals）。作者很擅長引經據典，其中引用了文豪波赫士寫的一段話，讓我產生好奇，找了原文來讀，驚覺實在很美。不愧是文豪啊。

“Time is the substance of which I am made. Time is a river that sweeps me along, but I am the river; it is a tiger that mangles me, but I am the tiger; it is a fire that consumes me, but I am the fire. The world, unfortunately, is real; I, unfortunately, am Borges.”

Jorge Luis Borges, “A New Refutation of Time”

@thomasfuchsThomas 🔭🕹️ wasn't going slow a whole part of Robert Martin's Clean Code and such?

花金鳳花 / Ranunculus asiaticus #はなの花写真

[전방위 할말]
이 글이 닿는 여러분께
하루의 시작에 눈을 떠서 하루를 마무리하고 눈을 감는 때까지 버텨낸 오늘도 고생 많으셨습니다. 이건 의심할 바 없이 위업입니다.

귀하의 노력과 시도가 언제든 그 어떤 형태로든 품에 안을 수도 없을 만큼의 결실로 돌아오기를, 고민이 아무리 무겁게 내려앉으려 하더라도 그것을 홀로 감내해야만 하는 날이 없으며 그 끝에 뱉는 한숨이 안도로 인한 것이기를 바랍니다.

공감과 친절, 나눔과 사랑 또한 연민이 무언가가 돌아오기를 기대하여 갖거나 행하지 아니하였더라도 그것이 결국 돌고 돌아 직접적이든 간접적이든 처음 시작된 곳으로 돌아오는 세상이며 타인의 괴로움을 자신의 것처럼 아파하여 그의 힘이 되어 주는 것이 당연한 삶을 우리가 살 수 있기를,

고통과 울음이 떠나는 걸음과 즐거운 일들이 재잘거리며 찾아오는 걸음이 바빠, 잠자리에 들 때에는 내일을 기대하는 마음을 품고 근심 없이 누울 수 있는 날이 귀하의 것이기를 진심으로 바랍니다.

本質に立ち返るべき

またTVerに来てるやったー

波よ聞いてくれ
第1話『お前を許さない』
https://tver.jp/episodes/epnaiaub44

판교는 암만 생각해도 해로운 도시다

edited to add: thanks for all the suggestions. I knew this would be the right crowd. (^_^) it seems like my nextcloud might be the lowest friction option, so I'm giving that a try first. so far I'm liking how easy it has been to just upload my music and it just shows up, and I like that there are multiple subsonic apps I can try. and I didn't have to do anything extra to be able to stream from anywhere (except read the actual help file, of course, it's not just your nextcloud's regular url that you want to point your app to, but once I realized that, it was dead simple). job well done everybody, another victory for self-hosting~

original post: alright, Linux havers, what are we using to wrangle our music libraries these days? I've got a fairly large collection (~85 gb) almost entirely mp3s, and I need the capability of syncing to my phone. I use Ubuntu and android. I do have a nextcloud self-hosting setup, do any of you use that? is it good? a lot of these google responses are kinda old.

#recommend #ubuntu #linux

右脚の痙攣が止まらん

#Spotted at a recent Italian Festival in Aotearoa New Zealand:

Two jolly women (70s?) are leisurely doing an olive oil tasting.
Laughing and comparing notes.
Do they like the chili flavour?
The lemon? Hmm.
Maybe both.
They wander off arm-in-arm, debating the merits of an afternoon Aperol Spritz.

In a marquee behind a food truck: A whistling man (60s?) is wielding a wooden spoon, stirring sauces in big no-nonsense pots.
Every now and then his son calls from the food truck: "How's it goin' back there Papa?"
Whistling Man replies: "Can't rush. It'll be ready when it's ready!"

A woman (60s?) says to her poker-faced parter: "What I really fancy is some balls. Big balls. I dunno what they're called, but I really want some of those REALLY BIG DELICIOUS juicy balls."
Both later seen sitting beneath a shady tree, happily chomping on a couple of arancini.

At a pizza stand, a tiny human (2?) is holding her hands up in the air: "Up Dad! Up!"
Dad picks her up.
Tiny Human considers her situation.
Hmm. Nope.
"Down Dad down!"
Indecisive Tiny Human gets put down and then frowns. Hmmm Nope.
"Up Dad up!"

Two men (50s?) are both motoring side-by-side towards the festival on vintage Vespas. Grinning at each other as they come to a stop not far from the local Italian Club.

Any typos spotted in this post are very much looking forward to eating the take-home arancini they purchased at a recent Italian festival. They are rather big and juicy balls.

ご当地YouTuberかな？​​

RE: https://misskey.io/notes/ajddpor4lq6i01ez

sudo pacman -Syu